The Fischer Family Trust (FFT) processes the National Pupil Database for the Department of Education and provides data and analyses to all schools in England and Wales. They provide grade predictors for student attainment at the the end of KS4 and we use these to inform the setting of ambitious and aspirational targets for students.
FFT is based on KS2 scores - the non-for-profit organisation look at the GCSE scores of all the students who got the same scores as your child when they were in Year 6 and then use that to work out the probability of your child getting particular grades at GCSE. These datasets are updated each year.
The example dashboard gives an indication of the statistical likelihood for a student to achieve a given target, though this target completely depends on the individual. Across a large dataset the pattern of outcomes has been established, but it will of course never fully predict the outcome for any given individual.